According to foreign media reports, three people familiar with the situation said that aides to US President elect Trump are exploring a tariff plan that applies to "all countries" but only covers key imported goods, which is a key shift in Trump's plans during his 2024 presidential campaign.

If the new plan is implemented, it will reduce the most extensive content of Trump's campaign plan.

It is reported that two weeks before Trump takes office, his aides are still discussing imposing import tariffs on goods from all countries. However, instead of covering all imported goods, the current discussion revolves around taking tariff actions only on specific industries that are crucial to US national or economic security, thereby abandoning key elements of Trump's campaign promises, at least for now.

During the Trump campaign, he called for a "universal" tariff of up to 10% or 20% on all goods imported into the United States. It is currently unclear which imported goods or industries will face tariffs.

According to reports, preliminary discussions have mainly focused on several key industries that the Trump team wants to bring back to the United States, including defense industry supply chains (tariffs on steel, iron, aluminum, and copper), critical medical equipment (syringes, needles, vials, and pharmaceutical materials), and energy production (batteries, rare earth minerals, and even photovoltaic panels).

Yu Yongding, a member of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said that if Trump imposes a 60% tariff on Chinese imports, China's exports to the United States will decrease by 85%. However, if we consider a significant decrease in the proportion of China's exports to the United States in China's exports, and the value added of China itself in China's exports to the United States may be relatively low. In this way, the 60% tariff will have a smaller impact on China's GDP. Some studies suggest that the impact of Trump's 60% tariff on China's GDP is around -1%, and the drag on China's GDP growth rate is less than 1%.

My overall feeling is that China has been continuously adjusting its economic structure over the past decade, and its dependence on foreign demand has gradually decreased. In recent years, the proportion of China's exports to the United States has also significantly decreased. Therefore, the reduction in China's exports to the United States caused by Trump's tariff policy, although its impact on China's economic growth cannot be ignored, is still controllable

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